Scorecasting - Part 3

Yesterday I talked about offence winning in the NFL. Today I will be looking at the NBA over the same period of time, since 2000. Does offence win or does defence get it done in the big series?

2011 Dallas Mavericks - Defence (Dirk Nowitzki)
2010 Los Angeles Lakers - Offense (Kobe Bryant)
2009 Los Angeles Lakers - Offense (Kobe Bryant)
2008 Boston Celtics - Defence (Kevin Garnett)
2007 San Antonio Spurs - Defence (Tim Duncan)
2006 Miami Heat - Offense (Dwyane Wade)
2005 San Antonio Spurs - Defence (Tim Duncan)
2004 Detroit Pistons - Defence (Chauncey Billups)
2003 San Antonio Spurs - Defence (Tim Duncan)
2002 Los Angeles Lakers - Offense (Kobe Bryant)
2001 Los Angeles Lakers - Offense (Shaquille O'Neal)
2000 Los Angeles Lakers - Offense (Shaquille O'Neal)

So if we look at the results, 6 teams had stronger defence while 6 had stronger offence. Again, there does not seem to be any significant advantage to the defence, it seems to be split pretty evenly. The next question is, does the best player win. Lebron James has made it quite clear over the past couple of years that, no the best player does not always win. But if we look a little deeper, the team that wins always had a player in the top 3 in the NBA except for the 2004 Detroit Pistons. Well now, let's look at teammates of players the winning players.

Offence Wins

2010 LAL - Kobe Bryant - Pau Gasol
2009 LAL - Kobe Bryant - Pau Gasol
2006 MH - Dwyane Wade - Shaquille O'Neal
2002 LAL - Kobe Bryant - Shaquille O'Neal
2001 LAL - Shaquille O'Neal - Kobe Bryant

2000 LAL - Shaquille O'Neal - Kobe Bryant

Defence Wins

2011 DM - Dirk Nowitzki - Jason Terry
2008 BC - Kevin Garnett - Paul Pierce
2007 SAS - Tim Duncan - Manu Ginobili
2005 SAS - Tim Duncan - Manu Ginobili
2004 DP - Chauncey Billups - Richard Hamilton
2003 SAS - Tim Duncan - Manu Ginobili

Well if we look at the second best player on different championship teams, it appears that when offence wins, the second best player is a significantly better player than if a defensive team wins. Does this mean that if an NBA or basketball team does not have two great players, their best chance of winning is by playing defensive basketball. Over the past twelve years that appears to be the case. This entire list shows that in the NBA, more so than the NFL, the star players win. Only one team won out of the twelve without a top player and if we add in in the nineties, teams winning with Duncan, Jordan and Olajuwon, this tread continues.

So far through two sports, the NFL and the NBA, there doesn't seem to be any clear advantage to building a defensive team. Getting the best players will give a team the best chance of winning a title. If a team cannot get the best players, getting players that can play defence may help turn a bad team into a mediocre team.

Next entry will talk about the NHL.