Wednesday 25 July 2012

Pre-Match Preparation - Part 1

The new few blog postings will be about tennis. I am reading Winning Ugly: Mental Warfare in Tennis by Brad Gilbert and Steve Jamison. I have been looking forward to reading this book for the last couple months. I am going to summarize chapter by chapter, for a reference for myself looking back as time goes on.

The first chapter is pre-match preparation. Most players do not spend any time on the tennis court thinking about their opponent and even fewer spend time before the match thinking about their upcoming match. I need to take advantage of this by recognizing my opportunity, analyzing my options and capitalizing on the opportunity by using the best option. I need to do this on my way to the match if not before I head to the match. When I am driving my car to the courts I need to be ready to play. I cannot hit a could double faults in my first service game because I was not ready to play.

I need to follow the following checklist before my match if I have played the player before.

  • How did I beat him before?
  • What does he do with his shot selection and pattern?
  • Does he attack?
  • Is he a retriever? 
  • Does he serve big?
  • What is his return of serve like?
  • Did I make mistakes against him last time?
  • What kind and why?
  • What shots are his best?
  • What shots are his worst?
  • Was he forcing me to do something that bothered me? 
  • Does he start strong and get too cautious on pressure points?
  • Was it a close match?
  • Were the points long?
  • What does he do to affect the atmosphere, mood or tempo of the match?
  • Is she very slow between points? 
  • Does he get emotional?
  • Does she protest a lot of calls?
  • Is he great when he gets a lead but not so great when he is losing?
  • Do your opponents give you a lot of small talk on changeovers?
  • Do they always show up ten minutes late?
  • Do they rush through the warm-up and want to start as soon as possible?
After I have played through the last match in my mind and finished going through the checklist, I need to come up with a game plan for the match. The two big questions that I need to answer are:

  • What do I want to make happen?
  • What do I want to prevent from happening?
To break those two questions down even further, I want to ask the following questions:

  • What is my opponent's best weapon?
  • Where is my opponent weak?
  • What is my best shot and how can I direct it at my opponent's weakness?
  • What can I do to keep my opponent away from my own weakness?
By answering all of these questions, I can take an advantage into a match that I otherwise might struggle to win. I need to be ready so that I don't have to think during the big moments of the match, that I can just recall my game plan and hopefully execute it.

Quotes are from the book: Winning Ugly: Mental Warfare of Tennis by Brad Gilbert and Steve Jamison

Tuesday 24 July 2012

History of Jays GM Alex Anthopoulos - 2009

Alex Anthropolous
Today Ichiro Suzuki was traded to the Yankees for two minor league pitchers, reliever D. J. Mitchell and Danny Farquhar. Neither of these players were in the top 15 Yankee prospects at the beginning of the year according to Fangraphs. This move seems to throw some positive light onto Yankees GM, Brian Cashman and has made me decide to look at the roster moves that Toronto GM Alex Anthopolous has made in his time as the Blue Jays GM. This report will be broken into three parts (so far) with each part representing one calendar year. This one will represent his first couple months in office, the calendar year 2009.

Oct 28 2009 - Michael Barrett is DFA'd

Michael Barrett ends up in the Mets organization. He spends 15 games in high-A and 16 in AAA before calling it a career.

Oct 28th 2009 - Sean Henn is claimed off of waivers from the Baltimore Orioles.

Sean Henn provides two years of relief in AAA for the Blue Jays before moving on to the Seattle AAA team.

Oct 30th 2009 - Jarrett Hoppauir is claimed off of waivers from the St. Louis Cardinals.

Jarrett Hoppauir plays quite well in AAA in 2010 for the Blue Jays and earns 13 MLB games putting up a WAR of -0.1. After 2010 he moves onto the AAA team of the San Diego Padres and has not returned to the majors.

Nov 6th 2009 - Kevin Millar files for free agency

Kevin Millar provided one season of baseball with the Jays in 2009 and he gave them a WAR of -1.0. AA chooses not to bring him back and he does not play professional baseball again.

Nov 8th 2009 - Rod Barajas files for free agency

Rod Barajas bounces around a few teams since 2010, the Mets, the Dodgers and the Pirates. He has had a WAR of 2.7 in the three seasons. The Blue Jays received a compensation pick for the loss of Barajas.

Nov 25th 2009 - John McDonald signs for two years at 1.5M per year.

John McDonald provides some value off of the bench with a WAR of 0.6 in each of the two seasons that the deal is good for. Good depth signing.

Alex Gonzalez applying a tag in 2011.
Nov 26th 2009 - Alex Gonzalez signs a one year 2.75M contract.

Alex Gonzalez is only a Blue Jay for half of a year. With the Blue Jays in half a year he has a WAR of 2.7 which is worth 10.7M for half a season of baseball. This was a great signing.

Dec 3rd 2009 - Marco Scutaro leaves Toronto to sign with the Boston Red Sox

After two good seasons in Toronto including a huge 2009 season with a WAR of 4.5, Scutaro cashes in and receives a big contract from Boston. In two seasons in Boston, he posts a WAR of 5.3 before moving onto Colorado. The Blue Jays receive two compensation picks.

Dec 4th 2009 - Joe Inglett is lost on waivers to Texas.

Joe Inglett does not even start the season with the Texas Rangers but actually spends the season as a bench player for the Milwaukee Brewers getting into over 100 games. He posts a WAR of 0.7 which is an alright season for a bench player. In 2011, he plays for the Houston Astros and struggles with a -0.3 WAR. He has yet to play in 2012.

Dec 7th 2009 - Fabio Castro is lost on waivers to the Boston Red Sox

Fabio Castro was a starter in AAA for the Blue Jays in 2009. He has been a pitcher in AA & AAA for Boston, Seattle and Oakland since but has never reached the majors.

Dec 10th 2009 - Zech Zinicola is chosen by the Blue Jays in the Rule V draft.

Zech Zinicola starts the season back with his original team, the Washington Nationals. He has still not made the majors.

Dec 13th 2009 - Raul Chavez is lost to free agency

He is retained playing in AAA for the Blue Jays for 2010, the Mets for 2011 and is out of baseball this season.

Dec 13th 2009 - John Buck is signed for 2M a year for one year.

John Buck hits 20 HRs in his only season as a Toronto Blue Jay. He has a WAR of 2.8 while hitting .281.

Dec 13th 2009 - Joey Gathright is signed

Joey Gathright does not play any games in the Blue Jays and plays just 7 games in the majors after this date.

Dec 13th 2009 - Jose Bautista is resigned to a 2.4M contract.

In 2010, Jose Bautista hit 54 HR's and had a WAR of 6.8. Amazing contract.

Dec 13th 2009 - Dustin McGowan is signed for 500k for one year.

Dustin McGowan is a great asset to hang onto but he has been hurt since 2008 other than a few games in 2011. He is again hurt this year.

Dec 14th 2009 - Roy Halladay is traded to Philadelphia for Kyle Drabek, Travis D'Arnaud and Michael Taylor. Michael Taylor is traded to Oakland for Brett Wallace.
When Roy Halladay was dealt he
took out a full page ad in a Toronto
Newspaper thanking the Toronto fans

This is one of the biggest days in the history of the Toronto Blue Jays. Arguably their best pitcher ever is traded to Philadelphia. Halladay has picthed a no-hitter and a perfect game since. He has a WAR of 16.6 in over 550 IP. Travis D'Arnaud is current Toronto Blue Jays' second top prospect. Wallace turned into Anthony Gose, the Blue Jays top prospect. Kyle Drabek is a top prospect as well, pitching alright this year before undergoing Tommy John surgery. This is a move to continue to monitor. Halladay: 16.6 D'Arnaud: 0 Gose: -0.2 Drabek: -0.2

Dec 22nd 2009 - Brandon League and PTBNL dealt to Seattle for Brandon Morrow.

This is a great move for the Jays trading a player that struggled with the Jays as a reliever for a future number one starter. Brandon League became a closer as the seasons went on. League: 2.3 Morrow: 8.7.

The first few months of AA's tenure involved a couple of major moves getting Brandon Morrow, Kyle Drabek and Travis D'Arnaud. He chose to keep free agent Jose Bautista and sign John Buck and Alex Gonzalez to one year contracts, both assets that will prove valuable in 2010.


Sunday 29 January 2012

Does Success in Boys Tennis Lead to Success on the ATP Tour?




Does being a top junior in tennis lead to ATP level success? In this post I am going to look at the statistics surrounding the top 10 boys in each year since 2000 and I am going to look at the junior ranking career highs for the top 25 on the ATP tour.

2000 Top Ten

1
Andy RODDICK (USA) - Career High: 1 - 1 GS, 4 GSF - 30 titles - 589 ATP wins
2
Todor ENEV (BUL) - Career High: 252 - 9 ATP wins
3
Joachim JOHANSSON (SWE) - Career High: 9 - 3 titles - 71 ATP wins
4
Mario ANCIC (CRO) - Career High: 7 - 3 titles - 208 ATP wins
5
Nicolas MAHUT (FRA) - Career High: 40 - 75 ATP wins
6
Ytai ABOUGZIR (USA) - Career High: 929 - 0 ATP or Challenger wins
7
Roman VALENT (SUI) - Career High: 300 - 0 ATP wins
8
Yen-Hsun LU (TPE) - Career High: 30 - 74 ATP wins
9
Adrian CRUCIAT (ROU) - Career High: 148 - 1 ATP win
10
Bruno SOARES (BRA) - Career High: 221 - 2 ATP wins - Doubles CH: 14

2001 Top Ten

1
Gilles MULLER (LUX) - Career High: 42 - 89 ATP wins
2
Janko TIPSAREVIC (SRB) - Career High: 9 - 2 titles - 191 ATP wins
3
Brian DABUL (ARG) - Career High: 82 - 15 ATP wins
4
Robin SODERLING (SWE) - Career High: 4 - 2 GSF - 10 titles - 310 ATP wins
5
Jimmy WANG (TPE) - Career High: 85 - 32 ATP wins
6
Lamine OUAHAB (ALG) - Career High: 114 - 8 ATP wins
7
Alejandro FALLA (COL) - Career High: 58 - 67 ATP wins
8
Roman VALENT (SUI) - Career High: 300 - 0 ATP wins
9
Bruno ECHAGARAY (MEX) - Career High: 156 - 5 ATP wins
10
Florian MAYER (GER) - Career High: 18 - 1 title - 157 ATP wins

2002 Top Ten

1
Richard GASQUET (FRA) - Career High: 7 - 6 titles - 257 ATP wins
2
Marcos BAGHDATIS (CYP) - Career High: 8 - 4 titles - 211 ATP wins
3
Clement MOREL (MON) - Career High: 387 - 0 ATP and Challenger wins
4
Todd REID (AUS) - Career High: 105 - 14 ATP wins
5
Brian DABUL (ARG) - Career High: 82 - 15 ATP wins
6
Brian BAKER (USA) - Career High: 172 - 4 ATP wins
7
Marcel FELDER (URU) - Career High: 227 - 14 ATP wins
8
Lamine OUAHAB (ALG) - Career High: 114 - 8 ATP wins
9
Martin VILARRUBI (URU) - Career High: 405 - 6 ATP wins
10
Steve DARCIS (BEL) - Career High: 44 - 2 titles - 49 ATP wins

2003 Top Ten

1
Marcos BAGHDATIS (CYP) - Career High: 8 - 4 titles - 211 ATP wins
2
Jo-Wilfried TSONGA (FRA) - Career High: 6 - 1 GSF, 8 titles - 193 ATP wins
3
Florin MERGEA (ROU) - Career High: 103 - 4 ATP wins
4
Daniel GIMENO-TRAVER (ESP) - Career High: 52 - 45 ATP wins
5
Sebastian RIESCHICK (GER) - Career High: 199 - 1 ATP win
6
Andy MURRAY (GBR) - Career High: 2 - 3 GSF, 22 titles - 328 ATP wins
7
Brian BAKER (USA) - Career High: 172 - 4 ATP wins
8
Leonardo KIRCHE (BRA) - Career High: 262 - 1 ATP win
9
Alex KUZNETSOV (USA) - Career High: 158 - 4 ATP wins
10
Frederico GIL (POR) - Career High: 62 - 53 ATP wins

2004 Top Ten

1
Gael MONFILS (FRA) - Career High: 7 - 4 titles - 228 ATP wins
2
Eduardo SCHWANK (ARG) - Career High: 48 - 36 ATP wins
3
Brendan EVANS (USA) - Career High: 117 - 6 ATP wins
4
Woong-Sun JUN (KOR) - Career High: 230 - 10 ATP wins
5
Sun-Yong KIM (KOR) - Career High: 620 - 3 ATP wins
6
Mischa ZVEREV (GER) - Career High: 45 - 57 ATP wins
7
Pablo ANDUJAR (ESP) - Career High: 40 - 1 title - 43 ATP wins
8
Scott OUDSEMA (USA) - Career High: 255 - 1 ATP win
9
Lukas LACKO (SVK) - Career High: 60 - 30 ATP wins
10
Rafael AREVALO (ESA) - Career High: 374 - 8 ATP wins

2005 Top Ten

1
Donald YOUNG (USA) - Career High: 39 - 32 ATP wins
2
Marin CILIC (CRO) - Career High: 9 - 6 titles - 188 ATP wins
3
Ryan SWEETING (USA) - Career High: 64 - 1 title - 27 ATP wins
4
Jeremy CHARDY (FRA) - Career High: 32 - 1 title - 83 ATP wins
5
Leonardo MAYER (ARG) - Career High: 51 - 35 ATP wins
6
Robin HAASE (NED) - Career High: 40 - 1 title 64 ATP wins
7
Robin ROSHARDT (SUI) - Career High: 509 - 0 ATP wins, 3 Challenger wins
8
Niels DESEIN (BEL) - Career High: 164 - 0 ATP wins, 20 Challenger wins
9
Thiemo DE BAKKER (NED) - Career High: 40 - 40 ATP wins
10
Andre MIELE (BRA) - Career High: 229 - 0 ATP wins, 23 Challenger wins

2006 Top Ten

1
Thiemo DE BAKKER (NED) - Career High: 40 - 40 ATP wins
2
Nicolas SANTOS (BRA) - Career High: 473 - 0 ATP wins, 1 Challenger win
3
Martin KLIZAN (SVK) - Career High: 86 - 6 ATP wins
4
Jonathan EYSSERIC (FRA) - Career High: 236 - 0 ATP wins, 19 Challenger wins
5
Petru-Alexandru LUNCANU (ROU) - Career High: 304 - 0 ATP wins, 7 Challenger wins
6
Dusan LOJDA (CZE) - Career High: 161 - 0 ATP wins, 48 Challenger wins
7
Alexandre SIDORENKO (FRA) - Career High: 145 - 3 ATP wins
8
Luka BELIC (CRO) - Career High: 808 - 0 ATP and Challenger wins
9
Kellen DAMICO (USA) - Career High: 1361 - 0 ATP and Challenger matchs
10
Pavel CHEKHOV (RUS) - Career High: 189 - 0 ATP, 17 Challenger wins

2007 Top Ten

1
Ricardas BERANKIS (LTU) - Career High: 72 - 18 ATP wins
2
Uladzimir IGNATIK (BLR) - Career High: 153 - 7 ATP wins
3
Matteo TREVISAN (ITA) - Career High: 267 - 0 ATP wins, 26 Challenger wins
4
Jonathan EYSSERIC (FRA) - Career High: 236 - 0 ATP wins, 19 Challenger wins
5
Fernando ROMBOLI (BRA) - Career High: 236 - 0 ATP wins, 12 Challenger wins
6
Stephane PIRO (FRA) - Career High: 931 - 0 ATP & Challenger matches
7
Thomas FABBIANO (ITA) - Career High: 275 - 0 ATP wins, 21 Challenger wins
8
Roman JEBAVY (CZE) - Career High: 423 - 0 ATP & Challenger wins
9
Ricardo URZUA-RIVERA (CHI) - Career High: 766 - 0 ATP & Challenger wins
10
John-Patrick SMITH (AUS) - Career High: 456 - 0 ATP wins, 5 Challenger wins

2008 Top Ten

1
Tsung-Hua YANG (TPE) - Career High: 170 - 3 ATP wins
2
Yuki BHAMBRI (IND) - Career High: 310 - 3 ATP wins
3
Bernard TOMIC (AUS) - Career High: 24 ATP wins
4
Henri KONTINEN (FIN) - Career High: 220 - 7 ATP wins
5
Cedrik-Marcel STEBE (GER) - Career High: 81 - 4 ATP wins
6
Guillaume RUFIN (FRA) - Career High: 139 - 5 ATP wins
7
Cesar RAMIREZ (MEX) - Career High: 431 - 5 ATP wins
8
Jose PEREIRA (BRA) - Career High: 444 - 0 ATP wins & 3 Challenger wins
9
David GOFFIN (BEL) - Career High: 168 - 4 ATP wins
10
Mirza BASIC (BIH) - Career High: 288 - 0 ATP wins & 3 Challenger wins

2009 Top Ten

1
Daniel BERTA (SWE) - Career High: 642 - 0 ATP wins & 1 Challenger win
2
Gianni MINA (FRA) - Career High: 395 - 0 ATP wins & 1 Challenger win
3
Agustin VELOTTI (ARG) - Career High: 306 - 0 ATP wins & 8 Challenger wins
4
Jason KUBLER (AUS) - Career High: 528 - 0 ATP & Challenger wins
5
Julien OBRY (FRA) - Career High: 291 - 0 ATP wins & 1 Challenger win
6
Mitchell FRANK (USA) - Career High: 623 - 0 ATP & Challenger matches
7
Liang-Chi HUANG (TPE) - Career High: 629 - 0 ATP & Challenger matches
8
Andrea COLLARINI (USA) - Career High: 470 - 0 ATP & Challenger wins
9
Pierre-Hugues HERBERT (FRA) - Career High: 205 - 0 ATP wins & 5 Challenger wins
10
Andrey KUZNETSOV (RUS) - Career High: 163 - 4 ATP wins

2010 Top Ten

1
Juan Sebastian GOMEZ (COL) - Career High: 515 - 0 ATP wins, 2 Challenger wins
2
Marton FUCSOVICS (HUN) - Career High: 575 - 1 ATP win
3
Jiri VESELY (CZE) - Career High: 515 - 0 ATP wins, 0 Challenger wins
4
Damir DZUMHUR (BIH) - Career High: 339 - 2 ATP wins
5
Dominic THIEM (AUT) - Career High: 635 - 1 ATP wins
6
Tiago FERNANDES (BRA) - Career High: 371 - 0 ATP wins, 9 Challenger wins
7
Roberto QUIROZ (ECU) - Career High: 776 - 0 ATP wins, 0 Challenger wins
8
Duilio BERETTA (PER) - Career High: 364 - 4 ATP wins
9
Agustin VELOTTI (ARG) - Career High: 306 - 0 ATP wins & 8 Challenger wins
10
Mate PAVIC (CRO) - Career High: 834 - 0 ATP wins, 0 Challenger wins

2011 Top Ten

1
Jiri VESELY (CZE) - Career High: 515 - 0 ATP wins, 0 Challenger wins
2
Luke SAVILLE (AUS) - Career High: 1171 - 0 ATP wins, 0 Challenger wins
3
Oliver GOLDING (GBR) - Career High: 643 - 0 ATP wins, 1 Challenger wins
4
Dominic THIEM (AUT) - Career High: 635 - 1 ATP wins
5
Bjorn FRATANGELO (USA) - Career High: 783 - 0 ATP wins, 0 Challenger wins
6
Hugo DELLIEN (BOL) - Career High: 1037 - 1 ATP wins
7
Thiago MONTEIRO (BRA) - Career High: 677 - 0 ATP wins, 0 Challenger wins
8
Filip HORANSKY (SVK) - Career High: 881 - 0 ATP wins, 0 Challenger wins
9
Liam BROADY (GBR) - Career High: 656 - 0 ATP wins, 0 Challenger wins
10
Patrick OFNER (AUT) - Career High: 1505 - 0 ATP wins, 0 Challenger wins

Thiemo de Bakker was a two time top 10 junior but
pro game has been stagnated in 2011 and 2012.
The first thing I notice, being a top 10 junior does not lead to success, it does not even lead to a spot in the top 100. From 2000 to 2006, only 35 out of 70 top 10 junior players made the top 100, or 50%. Only one has won a grand slam and been ranked number 1 and that is Andy Roddick. Only 10 have reached the top ten out of 110 former top juniors. Looking at all of the years, 2005 is clearly the top year, with 4 players winning titles and 7 players in the top 100 while 2006 is the weakest year with only top ranked Thiemo de Bakker and Martin Klizan reaching the top 100.

It is interesting to see the progression of juniors. Any junior before 2006 has most likely reached around his peak, but if you look at 2007, most of the players are just starting to perform on the challenger tour and get some wins, while the 2008 generation is just starting to get a win here and there on the ATP tour but for the most part are working on their games in challenger tour. The 2009 generation is mostly still on the futures tour with many players getting their first challenger tour win recently and the 2010 and 2011 juniors are still on the futures tour.

Luke Saville has won the 2011 Boys
Wimbledon and 2012 Boys Australian
Open Titles already.
To extrapolate, a top junior in 2012 would be expected to player on the futures tour in 2013 and 2014 before moving to the challenger tour in 2015 before hopefully finding his way to the ATP tour for 2016. It is starting to become a long road for a player to go from junior to ATP. 

Luke Saville will be a two time top ten member by the time he is done his junior career. The other players to achieve this honour are Roman Valent, Lamine Ouahab, Brian Dabul, Marcos Baghdatis, Brian Baker, Jonathan Eysseric, Augstin Velotti and Jiri Vesely. So far, there are a few players in that group that we are not sure how they will do, but besides Baghdatis, not too many big names. He may also end this year ranked number 1 and if he does, he will join pretty good company. Of the players that have developed to a point where we know where they are, number one ranked juniors tend to have a successful pro career.

If we look at today's top 20 and see their career high ranking in singles (combined if required) as a junior the list would be the following:

David Ferrer was never even ranked as
a junior and only entered qualifying for
two events, both times failing to qualify

1
Novak Djokovic - Junior Career High: 34
2
Rafael Nadal - Junior Career High: 145
3
Roger Federer - Junior Career High: 1
4
Andy Murray - Junior Career High: 2
5
David Ferrer - Junior Career High: Unranked
6
Jo-Wilfrid Tsonga - Junior Career High: 2
7
Tomas Berdych - Junior Career High: 6
8
Mardy Fish - Junior Career High: 14
9
Janko Tipsarevic - Junior Career High: 1
10
Juan Martin Del Potro - Junior Career High: 3
11
Nicholas Almagro - Junior Career High: 18
12
Gilles Simon - Junior Career High: 242
13
Gael Monfils - Junior Career High: 1
14
Robin Soderling - Junior Career High: 2
15
Feliciano Lopez - Junior Career High: 46
16
Richard Gasquet - Junior Career High: 1
17
John Isner - Junior Career High: 93
18
Alexander Dolgopolov - Junior Career High: 21
19
Andy Roddick - Junior Career High: 1
20
Kei Nishikori - Junior Career High: 7
One thing stands out right away. World number 5 David Ferrer was not ranked as a junior tennis player. He never qualified for a junior event in singles. Not even a low G5 event and now he has had a career high of 4 in the world. Also, Gilles Simon never cracked the top 240 in juniors, yet is a tough player to play today who has made the top 10. Once I get past the initial surprise, I am not surprised to see that over half of the top 20 players in the world were once ranked in the junior top ten. A few of the others such as Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal did not have a junior career because they were too busy already playing on the ATP tour. Roger Federer managed to be ranked as the top player in juniors and the pros. Only Andy Roddick has also done that since the year 2000.

The top players will succeed with or without junior tennis
but outside of the top few players, most players in today's
top 20 were ranked in the top 10 in juniors.
So what can I take from all of these numbers? To become a top ranked player, odds suggest that you were once a top 10 junior player. However, being a top ranked junior player does not necessarily lead to success on the ATP tour. Between 2000 and 2006, 50% of top ten juniors never made the top 100 of the ATP tour. The high end talent on in juniors did often go onto to have a successful career but a player ranked between 7 to 10 in the year end juniors rankings was much less likely to crack the top 100. This year will be interesting to see who finishes at the top of the junior rankings and to look ahead down the road to project when they will mature into their games and being members of the ATP tour.