Scorecasting - Part 2

"Offense sells tickets; Defense wins championships" - Bear Bryant


Is defence really more important than offence? This does not appear to be the case. Of the 44 Super Bowl winners, the better defensive team won 29 times and the better offensive team won 24 times. This adds up to more than 44 because 19 times a team has been better offensively and defensively. Well over 44 years, there is not a clear advantage for the defense. Let's look at the past super bowl winners.


2011 Winners - Green Bay Packers - Offense (Aaron Rodgers)
2010 Winners - New Orleans Saints - Offense (Drew Brees)
2009 Winners - Pittsburgh Steelers - Defense (Troy Polamalu)
2008 Winners - New York Giants - Defense (Michael Strahan)
2007 Winners - Indianapolis Colts - Offense (Peyton Manning)
2006 Winners - Pittsburgh Steelers - Defense (Troy Polamalu)
2005 Winners - New England Patriots - Offense (Tom Brady)
2004 Winners - Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Defense (Ronde Barber)
2003 Winners - New England Patriots - Offense (Tom Brady)
2002 Winners - New England Patriots - Offense (Tom Brady)
2001 Winners - Baltimore Ravens - Defense (Ray Lewis)
2000 Winners - St. Louis Rams - Offense (Kurt Warner)




Of the past twelve winners, a team with a more identifiable offensive player has won 58% of the time. With this year's result, either New England or New York Giants winning that will move to 62%. So in the NFL, it appears that teams are starting to win with offence.


What does all this mean for the league? It is positive for the league. The true football fans will watch football regardless of the result but for the casual fan, offence is exciting. It is easy to identify a hero for the media to drum up when teams are scoring five touchdowns a game. The highlights are much more exciting. Seeing a one-handed grab in the back of the end zone while keeping both feet down is much more interesting than seeing a zone defence successfully played on 3rd and 12. Both can lead to wins but one is much more exciting.


The next question that one could ask is, is there enough talent to go around the league so that parity will remain high throughout the NFL? If offence wins and there are only six great offensive players than getting those players will significantly increase the odds of winning for those teams. The parity chart to the left shows that in 2010 all of the teams can be linked through wins against other teams. The scores  

below each team is by how much they beat the team to their left. The circle is complete and includes all 32 teams in the NFL which is amazing. Now look at QB stats this year. We all know Drew Brees broke the record for passing yards this year, but Tom Brady also broke that record and Matt Stafford came very close as well. Aaron Rodgers put up the best QB rating ever, Eli Manning almost put 5000 yards, finishing with the 6th most in NFL history. Cam Newton set a record for most rushing TDs by a quarterback and most passing yards for a rookie quarterback. And all of this happened with Peyton Manning not playing a game in this year and Matt Schaub who was having a great season not playing more than 8 games. The talent at the QB position is at an all-time high right now. Many top running backs dealt with injury this year, Rashard Mendenhall, Jamaal Charles, Frank Gore, Adrian Peterson, Chris Johnson (holdout) and yet the numbers put up by the league leaders in rushing yards different no different than any other year that didn't have a dominant rusher. There is no doubt that talent in the NFL is quite high right now. 


The age-old adage that defence wins championships is not true the NFL. Stars win championships. Next entry will be about defence in the NBA. I am very interested to see the results there.