Does being a top junior in tennis lead to ATP level
success? In this post I am going to look at the statistics surrounding the top
10 boys in each year since 2000 and I am going to look at the junior ranking
career highs for the top 25 on the ATP tour.
2000 Top Ten
1
|
Andy RODDICK (USA) - Career High: 1 - 1 GS,
4 GSF - 30 titles - 589 ATP wins
|
2
|
Todor ENEV (BUL) - Career High: 252 - 9 ATP
wins
|
3
|
Joachim JOHANSSON (SWE) - Career High: 9 - 3 titles - 71 ATP wins
|
4
|
Mario ANCIC (CRO) - Career High: 7 - 3 titles - 208 ATP wins
|
5
|
Nicolas MAHUT (FRA) - Career High: 40 - 75 ATP wins
|
6
|
Ytai ABOUGZIR (USA) - Career High: 929 - 0 ATP or Challenger wins
|
7
|
Roman VALENT (SUI) - Career High: 300 - 0 ATP wins
|
8
|
Yen-Hsun LU (TPE) - Career High: 30 - 74 ATP wins
|
9
|
Adrian CRUCIAT (ROU)
|
10
|
Bruno SOARES (BRA)
|
2001 Top Ten
1
|
Gilles MULLER (LUX) - Career High: 42 - 89 ATP wins
|
2
|
Janko TIPSAREVIC (SRB)
|
3
|
Brian DABUL (ARG)
|
4
|
Robin SODERLING (SWE)
|
5
|
Jimmy WANG (TPE)
|
6
|
Lamine OUAHAB (ALG)
|
7
|
Alejandro FALLA (COL)
|
8
|
Roman VALENT (SUI)
|
9
|
Bruno ECHAGARAY (MEX)
|
10
|
Florian MAYER (GER)
|
2002 Top Ten
1
|
Richard GASQUET (FRA)
|
2
|
Marcos BAGHDATIS (CYP)
|
3
|
Clement MOREL (MON)
|
4
|
Todd REID (AUS)
|
5
|
Brian DABUL (ARG)
|
6
|
Brian BAKER (USA)
|
7
|
Marcel FELDER (URU)
|
8
|
Lamine OUAHAB (ALG)
|
9
|
Martin VILARRUBI (URU)
|
10
|
Steve DARCIS (BEL)
|
2003 Top Ten
1
|
Marcos BAGHDATIS (CYP)
|
2
|
Jo-Wilfried TSONGA (FRA)
|
3
|
Florin MERGEA (ROU)
|
4
|
Daniel GIMENO-TRAVER (ESP)
|
5
|
Sebastian RIESCHICK (GER)
|
6
|
Andy MURRAY (GBR)
|
7
|
Brian BAKER (USA)
|
8
|
Leonardo KIRCHE (BRA)
|
9
|
Alex KUZNETSOV (USA)
|
10
|
Frederico GIL (POR)
|
2004 Top Ten
1
|
Gael MONFILS (FRA)
|
2
|
Eduardo SCHWANK (ARG)
|
3
|
Brendan EVANS (USA)
|
4
|
Woong-Sun JUN (KOR)
|
5
|
Sun-Yong KIM (KOR)
|
6
|
Mischa ZVEREV (GER)
|
7
|
Pablo ANDUJAR (ESP)
|
8
|
Scott OUDSEMA (USA)
|
9
|
Lukas LACKO (SVK)
|
10
|
Rafael AREVALO (ESA)
|
2005 Top Ten
1
|
Donald YOUNG (USA)
|
2
|
Marin CILIC (CRO)
|
3
|
Ryan SWEETING (USA)
|
4
|
Jeremy CHARDY (FRA)
|
5
|
Leonardo MAYER (ARG)
|
6
|
Robin HAASE (NED)
|
7
|
Robin ROSHARDT (SUI)
|
8
|
Niels DESEIN (BEL)
|
9
|
Thiemo DE BAKKER (NED)
|
10
|
Andre MIELE (BRA)
|
2006 Top Ten
1
|
Thiemo DE BAKKER (NED)
|
2
|
Nicolas SANTOS (BRA)
|
3
|
Martin KLIZAN (SVK)
|
4
|
Jonathan EYSSERIC (FRA)
|
5
|
Petru-Alexandru LUNCANU (ROU)
|
6
|
Dusan LOJDA (CZE)
|
7
|
Alexandre SIDORENKO (FRA)
|
8
|
Luka BELIC (CRO)
|
9
|
Kellen DAMICO (USA)
|
10
|
Pavel CHEKHOV (RUS)
|
2007 Top Ten
1
|
Ricardas BERANKIS (LTU)
|
2
|
Uladzimir IGNATIK (BLR)
|
3
|
Matteo TREVISAN (ITA)
|
4
|
Jonathan EYSSERIC (FRA)
|
5
|
Fernando ROMBOLI (BRA)
|
6
|
Stephane PIRO (FRA)
|
7
|
Thomas FABBIANO (ITA)
|
8
|
Roman JEBAVY (CZE)
|
9
|
Ricardo URZUA-RIVERA (CHI)
|
10
|
John-Patrick SMITH (AUS)
|
2008 Top Ten
1
|
Tsung-Hua YANG (TPE)
|
2
|
Yuki BHAMBRI (IND)
|
3
|
Bernard TOMIC (AUS)
|
4
|
Henri KONTINEN (FIN)
|
5
|
Cedrik-Marcel STEBE (GER)
|
6
|
Guillaume RUFIN (FRA)
|
7
|
Cesar RAMIREZ (MEX)
|
8
|
Jose PEREIRA (BRA)
|
9
|
David GOFFIN (BEL)
|
10
|
Mirza BASIC (BIH)
|
2009 Top Ten
1
|
Daniel BERTA (SWE)
|
2
|
Gianni MINA (FRA)
|
3
|
Agustin VELOTTI (ARG)
|
4
|
Jason KUBLER (AUS)
|
5
|
Julien OBRY (FRA)
|
6
|
Mitchell FRANK (USA)
|
7
|
Liang-Chi HUANG (TPE)
|
8
|
Andrea COLLARINI (USA)
|
9
|
Pierre-Hugues HERBERT (FRA)
|
10
|
Andrey KUZNETSOV (RUS)
|
2010 Top Ten
1
|
Juan Sebastian GOMEZ (COL)
|
2
|
Marton FUCSOVICS (HUN)
|
3
|
Jiri VESELY (CZE)
|
4
|
Damir DZUMHUR (BIH)
|
5
|
Dominic THIEM (AUT)
|
6
|
Tiago FERNANDES (BRA)
|
7
|
Roberto QUIROZ (ECU)
|
8
|
Duilio BERETTA (PER)
|
9
|
Agustin VELOTTI (ARG)
|
10
|
Mate PAVIC (CRO)
|
2011 Top Ten
1
|
Jiri VESELY (CZE)
|
2
|
Luke SAVILLE (AUS)
|
3
|
Oliver GOLDING (GBR)
|
4
|
Dominic THIEM (AUT)
|
5
|
Bjorn FRATANGELO (USA)
|
6
|
Hugo DELLIEN (BOL)
|
7
|
Thiago MONTEIRO (BRA)
|
8
|
Filip HORANSKY (SVK)
|
9
|
Liam BROADY (GBR)
|
10
|
Patrick OFNER (AUT)
|
Thiemo de Bakker was a two time top 10 junior but pro game has been stagnated in 2011 and 2012. |
The first thing I notice, being a top 10 junior does not lead to success, it does not even lead to a spot in the top 100. From 2000 to 2006, only 35 out of 70 top 10 junior players made the top 100, or 50%. Only one has won a grand slam and been ranked number 1 and that is Andy Roddick. Only 10 have reached the top ten out of 110 former top juniors. Looking at all of the years, 2005 is clearly the top year, with 4 players winning titles and 7 players in the top 100 while 2006 is the weakest year with only top ranked Thiemo de Bakker and Martin Klizan reaching the top 100.
It is interesting to see the progression of juniors. Any junior before 2006 has most likely reached around his peak, but if you look at 2007, most of the players are just starting to perform on the challenger tour and get some wins, while the 2008 generation is just starting to get a win here and there on the ATP tour but for the most part are working on their games in challenger tour. The 2009 generation is mostly still on the futures tour with many players getting their first challenger tour win recently and the 2010 and 2011 juniors are still on the futures tour.
Luke Saville has won the 2011 Boys Wimbledon and 2012 Boys Australian Open Titles already. |
Luke Saville will be a two time top ten member by the time he is done his junior career. The other players to achieve this honour are Roman Valent, Lamine Ouahab, Brian Dabul, Marcos Baghdatis, Brian Baker, Jonathan Eysseric, Augstin Velotti and Jiri Vesely. So far, there are a few players in that group that we are not sure how they will do, but besides Baghdatis, not too many big names. He may also end this year ranked number 1 and if he does, he will join pretty good company. Of the players that have developed to a point where we know where they are, number one ranked juniors tend to have a successful pro career.
If we look at today's top 20 and see their career high ranking in singles (combined if required) as a junior the list would be the following:
David Ferrer was never even ranked as a junior and only entered qualifying for two events, both times failing to qualify |
1
|
Novak Djokovic - Junior Career High: 34
|
2
|
Rafael Nadal - Junior Career High: 145
|
3
|
Roger Federer - Junior Career High: 1
|
4
|
Andy Murray - Junior Career High: 2
|
5
|
David Ferrer - Junior Career High: Unranked
|
6
|
Jo-Wilfrid Tsonga - Junior Career High: 2
|
7
|
Tomas Berdych - Junior Career High: 6
|
8
|
Mardy Fish - Junior Career High: 14
|
9
|
Janko Tipsarevic - Junior Career High: 1
|
10
|
Juan Martin Del Potro - Junior Career High: 3
|
11
|
Nicholas Almagro - Junior Career High: 18
|
12
|
Gilles Simon - Junior Career High: 242
|
13
|
Gael Monfils - Junior Career High: 1
|
14
|
Robin Soderling - Junior Career High: 2
|
15
|
Feliciano Lopez - Junior Career High: 46
|
16
|
Richard Gasquet - Junior Career High: 1
|
17
|
John Isner - Junior Career High: 93
|
18
|
Alexander Dolgopolov - Junior Career High: 21
|
19
|
Andy Roddick - Junior Career High: 1
|
20
|
Kei Nishikori - Junior Career High: 7
|
One thing stands out right away. World number 5 David Ferrer was not ranked as a junior tennis player. He never qualified for a junior event in singles. Not even a low G5 event and now he has had a career high of 4 in the world. Also, Gilles Simon never cracked the top 240 in juniors, yet is a tough player to play today who has made the top 10. Once I get past the initial surprise, I am not surprised to see that over half of the top 20 players in the world were once ranked in the junior top ten. A few of the others such as Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal did not have a junior career because they were too busy already playing on the ATP tour. Roger Federer managed to be ranked as the top player in juniors and the pros. Only Andy Roddick has also done that since the year 2000.
The top players will succeed with or without junior tennis but outside of the top few players, most players in today's top 20 were ranked in the top 10 in juniors. |
No comments:
Post a Comment