Success in grand slam junior singles seems to be a better indication of ATP tour success than year end rankings.

Today, I will be begin to look at a few trends in from year end top ten junior stats from this previous blog.

Players who did have a successful ATP career

Andy Roddick transitioned from a successful junior
career to a successful pro career, winning 1 Grand Slam
and 32 titles.

First, I want to look at the players that had the most success going from junior tennis to senior tennis. I will be looking at 3 different players from three different years. Andy Roddick (2000), Andy Murray (2003) and Bernard Tomic (2007). Of the three, only Andy Roddick reached number 1 as a junior (Murray and Tomic reached #2).

I have decided to only include results from the year that year end top ten status was achieved and years after for players that reached the top ten before their last year of eligibility. I did not want to punish players that managed to make the main draw of these junior events at a young age, but struggled because they were not yet top juniors.

Andy Roddick (2000 and after) 

GS Wins

• 2000 Junior US Open

• 2000 Junior Australian Open

GS QF

• 2000 Junior Roland Garros

Andy Murray (2003 and after) 

GS Win

• 2004 Junior US Open

GS SF

• 2005 Junior Roland Garros

GS QF

• 2003 Junior US Open

GS 3rd Round

• 2003 Junior Roland Garros

• 2004 Junior Wimbledon

GS 1st Round

• 2003 Junior Wimbledon 

Bernard Tomic (2007 and after) 

GS Wins

• 2009 Junior US Open

• 2008 Junior Australian Open

GS SF

• 2009 Junior Wimbledon

• 2008 Junior Wimbledon

GS QF

• 2008 Junior Roland Garros

GS 3rd Round

• 2009 Junior Roland Garros

• 2007 Junior US Open 

GS 2nd Round

• 2007 Junior Roland Garros

• 2007 Junior Australian Open

GS 1st Round

• 2008 Junior US Open

Note: These three players combined for 11 grand slam quarter-finals or better in 19 opportunities.

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Players who did not have a successful ATP career

Sebastian Rieschick struggled
in junior grand slam events
and that struggle went with
him to the pro circuit.

Second, I want to look at three players that did not achieve success on the ATP tour after the junior career. Again, I will choose from three different years. I am attempting to avoid players that were plagued by injury, I would rather pick players that were not able to make it for reasons within their control.

My choices for the category of players that did not have success are Ramon Valent (2000, 2001), Sebastian Rieschick (2003) and Stephane Piro (2006). Sebastian Rieschick reached a career high of #1 in the world, while Roman Valent and Stephane Piro reached #3 and #4 respectively.

Ramon Valent (2000 and after)

GS Win

• 2001 Wimbledon

GS QF

• 2001 Australian Open

GS 3rd Round

• 2000 Wimbledon

GS 1st Round

• 2001 Roland Garros

• 2000 US Open

• 2000 Roland Garros

Sebastian Rieschick (2003 and after) 

GS 3rd Round

• 2004 Wimbledon

• 2003 US Open

• 2003 Wimbledon

GS 2nd Round

• 2004 Roland Garros

• 2004 Australian Open

GS 1st Round

• 2004 US Open

Stephane Piro (2006 and after) 

GS 3rd Round

• 2007 Roland Garros

GS 2nd Round

• 2007 US Open

GS 1st Round

• 2007 Wimbledon

• 2006 Roland Garros

GS Failed to Qualify

• 2006 Australian Open

Note: These three players combined for 2 grand slam quarterfinals or better in 17 opportunities.

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I will fully admit that my sample size is small but I do see a conclusion here.

Conclusion: Success in grand slam junior singles seems to be a better indication of ATP tour success than year end rankings.

What does this mean for 2012 prospects?

Filip Peliwo made all four grand slam finals in 2012,
winning Wimbledon and the US Open.

In 2012, Filip Peliwo reached all four grand slam finals, winning both Wimbledon and the US Open. The future could be bright for him. Frederico Silva of Portugal participated in seven junior grand slams in 2012 and 2013 and did not advance pass the 3rd round. According to my conclusion, his future does not look bright.

What does it mean for 2013 prospects?

I want to make a prediction here, but with so many of these top ranked players still being eligible for junior tennis this season, it is still too difficult to see who will fit which trend.